Definitly Red’s Odds Drastically Slashed For The Grand National, But Are The Winning Trends In His Favour?

Definitly Red’s Odds Drastically Slashed For The Grand National, But Are The Winning Trends In His Favour?

The Grand National is just a month away, and as excitement builds for the massive race at Aintree, punters are already keeping a close eye on the form guides and race meetings in the build up to the spectacle – whilst many will also be weighing up the best bets on Grand National.

Brian Ellison’s Definitly Red caught the eye of many at the end of February with an impressive 14 lengths victory over Kauto Riko in the Premier Chase at Kelso, and has since saw his odds slashed from 25/1 to 14/1, rocketing him into contention for the famous race.

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The 11-year-old had two options on the day as he was also entered for the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster, which Dan Skelton-trained Captain Chaos won by a whopping 54 lengths, but the conditions in the Scottish Borders market town suited him better and he prevailed at evens.

Ellison revealed after the race that he has backed the Chestnut Gelding to win the National, but admitted that he’ll need luck.

“I’m glad that’s out of the way,” the Geordie trainer told Racingtv.com

“I’ve backed him for the National, despite not being a big gambler, but I’ve always thought the race would suit him as he’s a proper stayer.

“He’s got plenty going for him, he’s got a nice weight, 10st 12lb, but you need luck in the National.

“He hated that ground today, it was tacky. The track doesn’t suit really, and taking the fences out didn’t help him, but he still won well.

But, can Definitly Red ruin Tiger Roll’s hopes of becoming the first horse to win the race three times on the trot and match the legendary Red Rum’s record of three career National wins? Well, the 11-year-old has an impressive 15 wins over 34 career jump races, boasting a win percentage of 44%.

The Gelding has also previously won at Aintree in the Grade Two Many Clouds Chase, and horses that have won over three miles in the past usually have a massive advantage when it comes to the National. You’d have to go back to the 1970’s to find the last horse that hasn’t won over the marathon distance, whilst many winners have also been trialled over the famous Merseyside hurdles in the past.

Another trend that plays into the Ellison-trained horses favour, is the fact that 27 of the last 28 winners ran no more than 55 days before the showcase, and Definitly Red will go into the race with just over 30 days since his last run.

Skipping this month’s Cheltenham Festival and heading straight for the National will also work in the 11-year-old’s favour as only Tiger Roll has won at the Prestbury Park meeting in the same season as winning the National since 1961.

Lastly, Definitly Red is carrying the perfect weight for the race at 10st 12lb. 21 of the last 28 winners have carried the 11-year-old’s weight or less with the last horse to win over 11st was Many Clouds in 2015 – a feat favourite Tiger Roll must overcome as he was given the top weight of 11st 10lb.

As Ellison said, he definitely has plenty going for him, and his trainer is hoping he’s the horse to be beat Gordon Elliott’s history marker, the 67-year-old added: “I hope we can spoil the Tiger Roll party! You can’t take anything away from Tiger Roll, though, he’s been fantastic, he’s won four times at Cheltenham as well as two Grand Nationals – a fantastic horse.”

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