It’s been an intriguing few months for those keeping an eye on the ante-post Cheltenham Gold Cup markets, but with around 40 days to go to the Festival, we have a fair idea of what the final pattern will look like.
First, a reminder of what has gone on: Might Bite led the ante-post markets for most of the summer and autumn, with many pundits feeling that last year’s runner up was capable of going one better in 2019. Things, of course, did not go to plan when Might Bite finished last in the Betfair Chase and looked all over the place in the King George VI Chase. He is now as big as 20/1 with Unibet and Paddy Power.
Native River just about okay in winter racing
Native River, last year’s winner, was just about okay in the same two races, but finished a fair distance behind Clan Des Obeaux in the King George. His odds have more or less stayed the same, ranging from about 9/2 to a best price of 11/2 with Betfair. To be honest, there wasn’t much from shown by Native River to make punters jump at those prices.
Because of the travails of those top contenders, it was almost with bated breath that punters and bookies awaited Presenting Percy’s season debut, which came in the Galmoy Hurdle just last week. He won easily enough, but did he show enough in that hurdle event to warrant being made for the most prestigious race at the Cheltenham Festival? Just 5/2 is cited for Presenting Percy by Paddy Power, which is, frankly, not very tempting at all.
Better value away from favourites
Indeed, the Gold Cup looks really open this year, and one could argue that there are several better candidates that offer much more value than Presenting Percy or Native River. Moreover, if you check the Freebets.com Cheltenham betting page, you will find ways to bet on some over-priced value picks for free.
Top of that list has to be Clan Des Obeaux, who can still be found as big as 10/1 with William Hill and Betfair. How can a horse, who beat Native River by around 14 lengths in the biggest race so far this jumps season – the King George VI Chase – be double the odds of his rival? Perhaps some think that Clan Des Obeaux’s win was a fluke, but the more you watch that performance the more you appreciate the quality of the run. In Paul Nicholls he has a master trainer, one who knows how to get horses ready for the Gold Cup.
Bellshill could deliver a shock If you are looking for some each way value, there are several who should over more compensation than Presenting Percy or Native River, even should they fail to win. It’s unclear what Elegant Escape’s pathway will be at Cheltenham, but his stamina makes him perfect for this race and 25/1 looks fair. Bellshill, too, could represent a better hope for Willie Mullins at 25/1 than the overrated Kemboy at 10/1 (odds from Betfair).
However, the Gold Cup can often throw up a big price placed finish for a gutsy type. Look no further than Definitly Red, who is made for these types of bruising encounters. 33/1 from William Hill looks really good for a horse whose connections are rumoured to be doing everything right to get him into contention for this race.
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