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Can Past Races Determine St Leger 2021 Winner?

Can Past Races Determine St Leger 2021 Winner?

Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have enjoyed a fierce tussle in the recent history of the St Leger Stakes at Doncaster Racecourse. Both trainers have put forward excellent horses in the contest and have been rewarded with multiple victories to their name. However, last season both saw their respective charges beaten by O’Brien’s son Joseph and his horse Galileo Chrome.

Joseph O’Brien won the race as a jockey in 2013 with Leading Light, and added the crown as a trainer when Galileo Chrome triumphed in the contest by a neck ahead of Berkshire Rocco. Aidan O’Brien’s horse Santiago was the favourite for the race, but he and the rest of the field could not contend with the Irish thoroughbred.

It was a slight surprise to see Galileo Chrome claim the victory given that it was his first race outside of Ireland. More often than not, trainers give their horses opportunities to find their form outside of their comfort zone, but Joseph O’Brien thrust his charge into the action at Doncaster Racecourse and reaped the reward. Form and performances on racetracks are a solid way of getting the most out of a bet on a race. Certain horses prefer the ground or the style of racetracks compared to others on the circuit, whereas others can be all-rounders and perform on all surfaces and racecourses around the world.

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All competitors are different and analysing their record is a key part of determining your success on a bet. Using AI tools, is it possible to calculate which horses have the best chance of winning races based on criteria such as the ground, weather, track and form ahead of a contest. For instance, there are betting algorithms that check all of these factors. Wanna bet? Ask Beth!’ on their St Leger picks and they may unearth the winner based on their selected criteria and horse racing prediction expertise.

Galileo Chrome bucked the trend, but there have been recent similarities between St Leger winners. Aidan O’Brien’s last triumph came in 2018 with Kew Gardens, who had a slow start to the flat season, underwhelming at The Derby. However, he found his form in the second half of the term with wins in the Queens’ Vase and the Grand Prix de Paris at Royal Ascot and Longchamp respectively. A good run at the Great Voltigeur Stakes set him up for the St Leger, where he delivered an outstanding performance to defeat Lah Ti Dar to claim the crown.

Aidan O’Brien also trained Capri with success in 2017, and he followed the trend of Kew Gardens by making a slow start to the season. He was largely disappointing in races at Leopardstown and The Derby, failing to make an impact at the Epsom Downs. However, Capri’s season turned with a brilliant performance in the Irish Derby to claim his first win of the term before he channelled that momentum to Doncaster to triumph at the St Leger.

Gosden’s last win came through Logician in 2019. Logician was downright dominant in the 2019 campaign. He is the rare case of a special horse that was able to brush all opponents aside with relative ease during the campaign, winning all five of his races. Logician won the St Leger by two-and-a-quarter lengths ahead of Sir Ron Priestley, proving his quality on the biggest stage.

In the 2021 field, Hurricane Lane almost fits the bill of Logician, putting forward a near flawless record in the campaign. He won the Dante Stakes and the Irish Derby, but could place only third in The Derby at Epsom. He appears to fit the mould of the dominant charge, although Adayar could be the one to watch bearing similarities to Kew Gardens and Capri.

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