Both the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns ended last week on a high. For the Lions, it was a reaffirming moment as they beat one of the NFL’s best teams. For the Browns, it was a reaffirmation indeed that it is difficult as hell to gain yardage against them.
The Lions, who are known for explosive offense, will encounter a genuine challenge with the Browns, who have faced down three of the NFL’s best quarterbacks and created headaches for all of them.
This game will take place at Ford Field in the Motor City at 1 PM ET on Sunday.
NFL odds on the Lions vs Browns game
The Lions are laying a bunch of points as the home team, according to the people at BetOnline:
Detroit Lions -9 (-112)
Cleveland Browns +9 (-108)
Over 44 Points -110
Under 44 Points -110
The Lions were very impressive in beating Baltimore on the road
The Lions walked into M&T Bank Stadium and walked out with a 38-30 victory over the Ravens on Monday night. David Montgomery had a 72-yard run, two touchdowns and spearheaded a ground attack that carved Baltimore up for 224 yards. Jared Goff threw for 202 yards and avoided mistakes.
Maybe just as importantly, the Lions hounded Lamar Jackson all night, sacking him no less than seven times. As this was on the heels of a 52-point output against the Chicago Bears, it represented a big turnaround from the lackluster effort against the Green Bay Packers in the opener.
The ground game leads to everything else for the Lions
One of the keys for Detroit is being able to run the football, which explains the 1-2 punch in the backfield with Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. They are eighth in the league in rushing play percentage (47.6%). And they’re averaging five yards per carry through the first three games.
What’s so important about that is that Goff is a quarterback who has benefited greatly from being able to work play action. He has thrown for 281 yards on these kinds of plays, at a rate of 11.7 yards an attempt.
Cleveland is going to challenge Detroit’s ability to run
No team in the NFL has been as tough against the run as the Cleveland Browns. They are #1 in the league in rushing yards allowed, and yards per carry allowed.
Rank very highly in other categories. They are fourth in passing yards allowed, and they’re second best in yards per play (3.8).
The Browns have yielded just 204.3 yards per contest, which is 23 yards better than the next best defense.
You also have to consider that figure within the proper context. Usually when a statement like that is made, we’re talking about a roster of weak opponents. But in the case of the Browns, they have played against three of the more explosive offenses and best quarterbacks. They lost by a single point against Joe Burrow and Cincinnati, then were routed by Baltimore and Lamar Jackson, and then last week’s game, when they beat Green Bay and Jordan Love in a last-second field goal.
Here are the yardage totals they’ve surrendered:
- Bengals – 141
- Ravens – 242
- Packers – 230
That’s actually kind of remarkable.
Cleveland needs offense
The problem with the Browns is that they don’t generate a lot of offense. They are 22nd overall in total offense, and have only scored 46 points.
Joe Flacco has thrown the ball more than any other quarterback (126 attempts). And part of the reason is that this team ranks 29th out of 32 clubs in rushing yardage. What Cleveland hopes is that they can develop more balance, and do so through the contributions of rookie Quinshon Judkins, who ran for 61 yards on ten carries against the Packers and has now averaged 5.5 yards a carry.
It will be interesting to see how the Browns look at Flacco as time develops. Will they eventually choose to give some time to a rookie (Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders) if things start to drag?
What will happen in the Browns-Lions game?
We think that the Browns have the ability to slow Detroit’s offense down, but even on a bad day, they can produce. In seven of their last eight games at Ford Field, the Lions have scored 30 points or more.
Our confidence in Cleveland’s offense doesn’t necessarily match that. That would give Detroit the edge here, although we are always mindful of the Browns working their defensive magic again, especially as they have some fundamentals on their side.
We think the total works well for us here.
THE PLAY: UNDER 44 POINTS
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