For the first time since August, Manchester City sit at the summit of the Premier League, ending Arsenal’s reign atop the table.
Pep Guardiola’s men extended their winning streak to five matches across all competitions on Wednesday with a 1–0 victory over Burnley at Turf Moor.
It wasn’t exactly a vintage City performance, but all that matters is the three points they collected to snatch first place from the Gunners.
The two title-contenders now sit level at 70 points atop the table, each with a goal difference of +37. But the Citizens have scored 66 goals to Arsenal’s 63, which is enough to put the Sky Blues in pole position for the Premier League title, a feat that looked nearly impossible just four months ago.
City’s midweek win also officially sent Burnley down to the Championship, leaving the relegation race down to just four clubs: Leeds United, who snatched a point against Bournemouth on Wednesday evening, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur.
According to si.com, as the Premier League enters its final month of fixtures, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the final table to shake out after City’s latest win.
Opta still backs Arsenal to win the Premier League title, but with each passing week, the supercomputer lowers the Gunners’ chances. After blowing a nine-point lead, Mikel Arteta’s men now only have 66.38% odds to end their nearly 22-year wait for the English crown.
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The odds are still in their favor upon first glance. After all, Man City have just a 33.62% chance to claim their 11th league title. But the predicted points are far closer than the percentages.
Arsenal are expected to finish with near 81 points, while the Citizens stand to collect around 79. The projected 1.58-point gap leaves little room for error for either side; one slip up could decide the title race.
In Opta’s eyes, the race for the Champions League places is all but wrapped up. Aston Villa and Manchester United lead the way in third and fourth respectively, each with over 98% odds to qualify for Europe’s premier club competition with around 65 points.
Liverpool, who currently sit just three points behind the Villans and Red Devils, are the last and final English team expected to compete in the 2026–27 Champions League. Despite the Reds’ troubling campaign, the defending Premier League champions are projected to collect around 63 points, enough to secure a place among Europe’s elite next season.
