The Opta supercomputer is backing defending champions Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) to overcome Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League final, but only by a narrow margin.
Arsenal Eye First-Ever UCL Title As PSG Look To Emulate Real Madrid
On Saturday, newly crowned Premier League champions Arsenal will feature in their first UEFA Champions League final for 20 years.
As for PSG they are attempting to become the first club other than Real Madrid to defend the trophy in the Champions League era (1992-93 onwards) – Los Blancos memorably won it three times in succession from 2015-16 to 2017-18.
Saturday’s showpiece, which takes place at the Puskás Aréna in Budapest, will be a battle between the holders and challengers with relatively little experience on the continental stage.
Arsenal are looking to rule the continent for the very first time, having an opportunity to become the 25th different club to win Europe’s premier club competition (including the European Cup era).
There have been two first-time winners in the last three editions, with PSG the most recent team to etch their name onto the trophy for the first time.
Supercomputer Slightly Backs PSG To Overcome Arsenal
Now according to Opta Supercomputer, PSG are assigned a 56% chance of retaining the trophy, with Arsenal given a 44% probability of completing a famous double.
Across 10,000 match simulations, PSG were victorious within 90 minutes in 43.5% of scenarios, with Arsenal triumphing in 29.7% and the remaining 26.8% requiring extra-time and potentially a penalty shootout.
Also Read: UCL: Why I Would Bet On Arsenal To Beat PSG —Wenger
The Best Attack vs Best Defence
This match could represent an intriguing clash of styles, as an immovable object meets an irresistible force.
Arsenal’s run to the final – and their success on the domestic front – has been built upon a rock-solid backline.
The Gunners hold the best defensive record in this season’s Champions League, conceding six goals in 14 matches (0.43 per game). The record among teams to play 13+ matches in a single campaign remains 0.31 per game, held jointly by Arsenal (2005-06, lost to Barcelona in the final) and Chelsea (2020-21, won the trophy).
Luis Enrique’s side are unbeaten in their last 11 Champions League knockout matches, winning nine and drawing two, though their last defeat in a knockout game did come against Premier League opposition, versus Aston Villa in the second leg of the 2024-25 quarter-finals.
Ousmane Dembele Expected To Be Fit
With Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembélé enduring a disrupted campaign – he suffered another injury scare in the final game of PSG’s Ligue 1 season but is expected to be available for Saturday – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has taken up the mantle.
Kvaratskhelia has the most goal involvements of any player in this season’s Champions League knockout rounds (10), scoring seven and assisting three. During PSG’s rollercoaster semi-final tie against Bayern, the Georgian became the first player to score or assist in seven consecutive knockout appearances in the same UCL campaign.
