Can Chelsea Pull Off Back-To-Back Champions League Success?

Heineken UCL Special: Can “dark horses” Chelsea Pull Off Back-To-Back Champions League Success?

At this stage of the Champions League last season, Chelsea were walking on a tight rope. Yet the unlikely winners won Europe’s most prestigious club competition. A year down the line, the Blues are looking poised to win the trophy back-to-back. With the English Premier League all but won by either Manchester City or Liverpool, retaining ‘the trophy with big ears’ is the number one priority of Thomas Tuchel’s side.

On Tuesday, the Champions of Europe and the World take on the Champions of France in the first leg of the Round-of 16-in this year’s Champions League. The holders head into their first knockout clash as strong favourites, with LOSC currently sitting in 11th spot in Ligue 1 with no chance of successfully defending their title after a raft of key player and coaching exits.

Chelsea are on a high after their dramatic Club World Cup victory against Palmeiras in Abu Dhabi, while Hakim Ziyech’s last minute goal gave them victory against London rivals Crystal Palace on Saturday.

It will be a busy week for Chelsea, who also face Liverpool in the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley Stadium on Sunday. But this quarterfinal game is all that is on their mind at the moment.

How they got here

Though Chelsea ended as runners-up in their group, progress was fairly straightforward for them with their three home games all ending in victories and clean sheets. LOSC, by contrast, had to wait until the final match to qualify with their 3-1 success at Wolfsburg sealing their round-of-16 place and a 2-1 triumph at Sevilla on Matchday 4 pivotal to their ascent to the Group G summit.

Previous meetings

Chelsea beat LOSC 2-1 away and at home in the 2019/20 UEFA Champions League group stage, those six points helping the Blues finish second in Group H on 11 with LOSC eliminated in fourth on one point.

Frank Lampard’s Chelsea were victorious at the Stade Pierre Mauroy on Matchday 2 thanks to Willian’s winner 12 minutes from time after Tammy Abraham’s 22nd-minute opener was cancelled out 11 minutes later by Victor Osimhen.
Abraham also opened the scoring at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 6, in the 19th minute; César Azpilicueta made it 2-0 (35), with a 78th-minute reply from former Chelsea striker Loïc Rémy all Christophe Galtier’s LOSC could manage.

Form guide

Chelsea

The Blues looked set to take first place in Group H heading into the final round of matches after a 4-0 win at home to Juventus in their penultimate fixture had made it three victories from three at Stamford Bridge in this season’s competition, and nine goals scored with none conceded, after Zenit (1-0) and Malmö (4-0) were also defeated. That gave the English club the head-to-head advantage over their Italian rivals. However, a Zenit goal four minutes into added time earned a 3-3 draw that left Chelsea on 13 points, two behind Juventus.

Chelsea claimed their second UEFA Champions League title in 2020/21 by beating Manchester City 1-0 in the all-English final at Porto’s Estádio do Dragão on May 29, Kai Havertz scoring the only goal in the first half – his first strike in the competition.
The Blues had made smooth progress through their section (W4 D2) to finish ahead of Sevilla, Krasnodar and Rennes.

With Thomas Tuchel having replaced Lampard as head coach in January, Chelsea then eased past Atlético de Madrid in the round of 16, winning 1-0 in Bucharest before a 2-0 home victory, and held off Porto in the last eight (2-0 a, 0-1 h) with both matches played in Seville. Chelsea then got the better of Real Madrid in the semi-finals (1-1 a, 2-0 h) before claiming their second UEFA Champions League title against City.
A 1-0 defeat at Juventus on Matchday 2 this season is one of only four in Chelsea’s last 26 UEFA Champions League matches (W16 D6).
Chelsea have won seven of their last 13 European matches at Stamford Bridge (D4 L2), including the last five, all with clean sheets.

Chelsea’s record in the round of 16 is W9 L6. Last season’s defeat of Atlético ended a run of four successive losses at this stage.
The Blues have won only one of their four two-legged ties against French clubs, a sequence that includes defeats by Paris Saint-Germain at this stage of the UEFA Champions League in 2014/15 (1-1 a, 2-2 h aet) and 2015/16 (1-2 a, 1-2 h). Their sole aggregate knockout success against Ligue 1 opposition also came against Paris, in the 2013/14 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals (0-2 a, 3-1 h).
Chelsea have won their last four games against French clubs, beating Rennes 3-0 at home – Timo Werner scoring twice from the penalty spot – and 2-1 away in last season’s group stage, Callum Hudson-Odoi finding the net in France. That made it five wins in their last 11 games against French clubs, home and away (D2 L4).

The Blues have, however, lost only one of their ten home matches against Ligue 1 visitors (W6 D3), that 2-1 defeat by Paris in the 2015/16 round of 16 second leg.

LILLE

LOSC took only two points from their first three Group G games but won the next three, a 3-1 victory at Wolfsburg on Matchday 6 securing progress as group winners.
The French side had lost 2-1 at Salzburg in their first away game but won by the same scoreline at Sevilla on Matchday 4.

This season was LOSC’s seventh UEFA Champions League group stage campaign, but just their second in the past nine seasons. Only one of those previous six campaigns has extended into the knockout phase.
Les Dogues’ last appearance came in 2019/20, when they finished bottom of a section that also included Valencia, Chelsea and Ajax. LOSC lost five of their six games, the exception a 1-1 draw at home to Valencia on Matchday 3.
In 2020/21, LOSC’s European campaign began in the UEFA Europa League group stage, where they finished second in their section behind AC Milan on 11 points, recording a notable 3-0 away win against the Rossoneri to help them finish above Sparta Praha and Celtic.

LOSC’s campaign was ended by Ajax in the round of 32, the Amsterdam club winning 2-1 in both France and the Netherlands.
The 2-1 win in Seville on Matchday 4 ended LOSC’s ten-match run without a UEFA Champions League group stage victory (D3 L7).
Despite winning at Sevilla and Wolfsburg, LOSC have managed only five victories in their 22 away games in the UEFA Champions League proper (L13) and had suffered four successive away defeats before victory in Spain; they have been beaten in nine of their last 15 away European matches (W4 D2).

LOSC are in the round-of-16 for only the second time, the first, in 2006/07, having ended in defeat against English opponents as Manchester United won 1-0 away and at home.
LOSC’s record in two-legged knockout ties against English clubs is W1 L2, the most recent contest against Liverpool in the 2009/10 UEFA Europa League round of 16 (1-0 h, 0-3 a). The sole success came against Aston Villa in the 2002 UEFA Intertoto Cup semi-finals, a 2-0 away second-leg win completing a 3-1 aggregate triumph; that victory in Birmingham remains LOSC’s only one in England (D1 L5).
The defeat at Chelsea in December 2019 was LOSC’s fourth in a row in England. The first-leg victory against Liverpool is 2010 is their only win in eight games, home and away (D1 L6).

Prediction

On paper, this game looks like the lucky draw for the defending champions. But if there is one thing we should know, it’s that anything can happen in knockout games, even over two legs. Lille must not be underestimated. And with Chelsea eyeing a trophy on Sunday against Liverpool, this game could be a distraction. But do you think the Blues will lose this game? Quite unthinkable.