Three points. That’s all that separates Arsenal and Manchester City with four and five matchdays left in the season. Though Arsenal leads the table, City’s game in hand makes everything unpredictable. Even a draw away from home could tilt the title. In this piece, there’s a run-down of the important fixtures coming up for both clubs and exactly why each one could make or break their title ambitions.
Current State of the Title Race
Arsenal are currently first in the Premier League with 73 points from 34 games. But, with an outstanding match, Man City are on 70 points meaning they’re just three points behind. That one additional match could change everything.
There is no need to overstate the gap. The title race now comes down to numbers that look small on paper but feel huge in practice. Slotozilla’s penny slots guide explains another small-unit format, including demo games where one penny per line describes the stake on each active payline. For Arsenal and City, the numbers are points rather than paylines, but there is little room left to recover.
City is on a roll after winning their last three matches. The gap between the two clubs has shrunk. And from all indications, City’s current form and stronger home schedule could still give them the edge.
Arsenal’s Key Matches Ahead
Arsenal’s last four games are Fulham at home, then West Ham away. Then, they’ll later face Burnley at home and Crystal Palace away on the final day of the season. Coincidentally, the kick-off aligns with City’s last match, where if all goes right, it could be the deciding 90 minutes. With two home games and two away, the two away fixtures look especially risky because the facts are:
- This season, West Ham lost only 9 of their last 16 home league games. However, they’re no sure thing as Arsenal have won only 2 of their last 5 away matches.
- Fulham may sit tenth with 48 points. Yet, they’ve also picked up points against stronger sides.
- Crystal Palace have drawn 10 of 33 games this season and they could be difficult opponents for a title-chasing side for title-chasing Arsenal.
From the look of things, it seems Arsenal has it easiest with Fulham and Burnley. Burnley is in the relegation zone with an unimpressive form. However, should Arsenal lose or draw any away match, then City could move into a much stronger position.
Manchester City’s Key Matches Ahead
City’s run-in includes Everton away, Brentford at home and Aston Villa at home. They also have a home fixture against Crystal Palace and an away trip to Bournemouth in the schedule. Here are the facts:
- City have scored 66 goals this season making them particularly dangerous for opponents at the Etihad.
- Everton have lost only 13 of 34 league games. They may be vulnerable but are no sure walkover.
- Brentford sit 9th with 48 points and have drawn 9 of 33 games.
Their home fixture against Palace is currently unconfirmed. If that holds, the City will go into it knowing what they need.
Related: UCL: Trio Absent From Arsenal Training Ahead Atletico Tie
Head-to-Head Comparison of Run-In
Arsenal plays four, City plays five and that extra game is the entire conversation right now. But having more games isn’t automatically an advantage as it also means more chances to slip up. Here’s a breakdown of the last games comparison for both teams:
| Club | Remaining Games | Home Fixtures | Away Fixtures | Avg Opponent Position |
| Arsenal | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15th |
| Man City | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14th |
Arsenal has two home games and two away games to go. Yet, it’s their run-ins with West Ham and Palace that could dent them especially now they have only won two of their last five away games. City, however, still have three home fixtures at the Etihad, where they have been especially strong this season.
On average, both clubs play against teams ranked about 14th to 15th on the table. The difference in levels isn’t too serious, but Man City will play at home, and they also have one additional game, meaning they have a slight upper hand.
Potential Title-Deciding Moments
Which club wins the title will be decided by moments that do not even involve the two playing each other. Here’s what to watch:
- For West Ham vs Arsenal, a slip here hands City breathing room. Even a draw could prove costly by season’s end.
- If the Man City vs Palace fixture falls when City already know Arsenal’s final-day result, the pressure will be enormous. City will need to deliver with full knowledge of the stakes
- The last matches for both clubs are both on the final day with the same kickoffs. If the title isn’t settled before this stage, both run-ins are where fans learn who the champions are.
Small margins have already shaped this race with a single-goal swing in the Manchester derby changing the narrative to a large extent. If Arsenal can win their next two before City’s rescheduled game, they could close the door entirely.
Conclusion
Man City’s extra fixture and three remaining home games give them a real advantage in the run-in. Arsenal still control part of the race. However, their away form is hit and miss and, let’s face it, it is this weakness that City will prey upon. Arsenal could claim the title if they keep their cool. If they don’t, City will have a clear chance to take advantage.
