Why Most Fans Overlook the NFL Preseason
Most normal fans don’t pay a heck of a lot of attention to the preseason, unless it involves their favorite team only.
But if you are wagering on football and want to make some money, you can use the NFL preseason as an opportunity.
The games do not count in the standings. So winning and losing doesn’t mean a lot to everybody.
The Key Factor: Motivation
When it comes down to it, who wins and who loses is connected to a motivation factor. And since we know that preseason personnel varies for each team from one year to the next, the only consistent factor we can look at involves the coaches.
To put it simply, some coaches are more determined to win than others.
In many cases, it’s about who is going to keep their starters in longer. The common practice has been for one team to use its starters (it’s “number ones”) against the number ones for the other team, the numbers twos vs. number twos, and so on. This is not always the case, and when it isn’t, you know you are looking at a motivated coach on one of the two sides.
Coach Philosophy Revealed Through Player Usage
When you read online about which players are going to participate and for how long, remember that this serves as an indicator of the coach’s philosophy about these kinds of affairs.
I have been betting on preseason games for over 30 years, and I have always bet on coaches. I recall that Dennis Green of Minnesota always looked for a crisp effort out of his team, and I always for the sense that they wanted to win in the preseason. Marv Levy, on the other hand, looked as if he was laying down to the other team, as his Buffalo Bills gave consistently substandard performances. The oddsmakers were not always on top of this kind of thing.
Current Coaches with Preseason Trends
So now, as we talk about the present day, we can look at some coaches who have a lengthy track record with preseason games.
Andy Reid of Kansas City (whose Chiefs are +750 to win the Super Bowl at BetOnline) doesn’t seem to care about it one way or another. He is 45-45-4 ATS in the preseason. So obviously he doesn’t trend in either direction. And Dan Quinn, who had a head coaching stop in Atlanta before he arrived in Washington, is 6-14-1 ATS. Zac Taylor of Cincinnati is just skating through; he is 3-12 straight-up as an “exhibition” coach.
Check which NFL Coaches are on the HOT SEAT!
The Preseason All-Pros: Harbaugh and Tomlin
But there are a couple of real long-time All-Pros among preseason head coaches.
The champ in this group is Baltimore’s John Harbaugh, who, as evidenced by his record, has placed an emphasis on doing well. He is a sizzling 46-15 straight-up in the preseason during his career, with a 40-20-1 ATS mark. From 2016 to 2022, he went undefeated, winning 23 consecutive games over that period.
Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin has been a steady winner, with a 40-24 straight-up record over the course of his career and a 36-27-1 record covering spreads.
Take note, however; Harbaugh has gone 1-2 in each of the last two preseasons, while Tomlin was 0-3 last year. It could be that the schedule changes in the preseason, calling for just three games (unless you’re in the Hall of Fame game) may be having some effect.
Final Word: History as a Predictor
But if you’re one of those “long-term” guys who likes to see a big sample size, what has happened in the past may be a pretty good predictor of what will happen in the future.
