Reigning AFCON champions Teranga Lions of Senegal have emerged as the narrow favourites to lift the trophy in Côte d’Ivoire.
This is according to popular data platform Opta Analyst in collaboration with BBC Sport.
Opta has worked with BBC Sport to crunch the numbers and look at who might be crowned champions of Africa.
Using Opta’s artificial intelligence prediction model, holders Senegal have been predicted to retain their title.
The Teranga Lions would become the fourth team to win consecutive AFCONs and the first since Egypt won three in a row between 2006 and 2010.
None of the past six defending champions have gone beyond the competition’s last 16.
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To achieve a more well-rounded picture of who will win the delayed 2023 Afcon, the prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – by using betting market odds and Opta’s team rankings.
The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model then considers opponent strength and the difficulty of their path to the final – using match outcome probabilities, the composition of the groups and potential knockout stage match-ups.
Senegal are the most likely winners according to the model, with a 12.8% chance, just ahead of hosts Ivory Coast (12.1%), who are attempting to win the trophy for a third time, after 1992 and 2015.
The last host nation to lift the trophy were Egypt in 2006 – with just two-third place finishes (Ghana in 2008 and Cameroon in 2021) the best result among the past nine countries to host or co-host the competition.
Morocco (11.1%) are given the third-best chance of winning by the predictor model. They are seeking their second AFCON title, having won it in 1976, but they have not got past the quarter-finals in their past seven AFCON appearances, since losing the 2004 final 2-1 to Tunisia.
Algeria (9.7%) are the fourth-most likely winners, with Egypt fifth (8.5%). For Algeria, the chances of victory are boosted potentially by an easier group than some of the other top contenders, giving them the highest probability of reaching the last 16 (91.5%).
Pharaohs of Egypt have a 16% chance of at least reaching another final this year while Nigeria’s Super Eagles have 8.1% chance and Cameroon got 7.5%.
The AFCON 2023 will kickoff on 13 January and end on 11 February 2024.
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COMMENTS
This game isn’t this predictable. OPTA wouldn’t have Zambia a fighting chance to win in 2012 but they won anyways.