It can be said that the Minnesota Vikings can consider themselves fortunate that the Chicago Bears stumbled over themselves in the second half of Monday night’s game, as they were adjusting to a new coach.
But the Vikings were getting used to playing with their new quarterback as well, and that is taking some growing pains.
On Sunday night (NBC), the Vikings will be playing host to the Atlanta Falcons at US Bank Stadium in a game that begins at 8:20 PM ET.
At BetOnline, here are the Sunday Night NFL odds on the Vikings-Falcons game
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (+103)
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (-123)
Over 44.5 Points -110
Under 44.5 Points -110
So what happened last week for the Vikings and Falcons?
The Vikings waited a whole year for the debut of JJ McCarthy, and they got a lot of what they were waiting for. Of course, there were some hairy moments at the beginning, like the pick-six he threw. But eventually he was able to really calm down and keep things together. The Vikings, with 21 points in the fourth quarter, beat the Bears 27-24.
The Falcons gave up a touchdown pass from Baker Mayfield to rookie Emeka Egbuka with about a minute left to drop a 23-20 decision to Tampa Bay. This effectively begins a new era for them, as Michael Penix has been the anointed starter for the beginning of training camp. He threw for 298 yards.
And what about JJ McCarthy’s NFL debut?
McCarthy threw two touchdown passes – to Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones – and scored another one himself on a great effort. And there is no question that he went a long way toward gaining the respect of his teammates.
We would say his “new” teammates, but he’s actually been with the team for more than a year. And that’s a natural advantage he’d have over other quarterbacks. He’s been in the meetings. He’s worked with the coaches. They knew, for all intents and purposes, that he was going to be their starting quarterback, so they did not go out of their way to retain Sam Darnold, who did such a fine job for him during a 14-3 season.
What I’m saying is that he shouldn’t be expected to play like a raw rookie. Of course, he’ll have to get more out of Jefferson, who caught four passes on Monday, and Adam Thielen, who was targeted once but should be more of the game plan this week.
What should we expect from Atlanta’s offense?
Well, last year the Falcons ran the ball 45.6% of the time with a quarterback that always threw too much (Kirk Cousins), so one might have expected that they would have been run-first.
But it was just the opposite. Last Sunday Penix aired it out 42 times and the team had just 28 running plays.
Atlanta has had a reputation for being able to push back the opponent’s defensive line. But things may be a bit different now. Drew Dalman is gone. Kaleb McGary is injured. The Falcons have two very capable backs in Bijon Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but they combined for only 2.2 yards per carry.
So they’re throwing the ball all over the place with Penix.
Where Robinson was most useful was in the passing game, and he had six catches for 100 yards. Penix averaged only 6.9 air yards per throw, but got seven yards after the catch from his receivers.
Conclusion – So who wins: Vikings or Falcons?
If the Falcons can’t play a dominant game along the offensive front, this becomes an easier assignment for Minnesota’s defensive coordinator, Brian Flores. Our guess is that he can do some things to confuse Penix, and perhaps make some throws that are ill-advised.
Minnesota does have one of the better defenses, because they force turnovers and get pressure on the passer. And I’m not convinced that Atlanta has enough firepower at wide receiver, outside of Drake London (who’s listed questionable) to be really threatening.
Meanwhile, the Vikings will get key contributions from Jordan Mason (68 yards last week) to complement Aaron Jones. That was a good acquisition.
It would really add some drama if Kirk Cousins got into the game and saved it for the Falcons. But that’s not happening, so we lay the points at almost even money.
THE PLAY: VIKINGS -3.5 (+103)
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