As the Cheltenham Festival unfolds its grand spectacle, the spotlight shines brightly on the revered Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, heralding the dawn of a thrilling week of racing ahead.
Amidst the buzz of anticipation, discerning punters and pundits alike delve into the intricate tapestry of trends that shape this prestigious event — seeking clues to unravel the mysteries of the upcoming renewal.
For those seeking guidance in navigating the market and looking for a bet on horse racing, here’s a deep dive into the pivotal trends to ponder.
Age
While the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle accommodates horses from four years old and up, statistics reveal a distinct preference for contenders aged five or six — with 11 out of the last 12 victors falling within this age range.
Odds
Although only a handful of favourites claimed victory in recent years, many winners emerged from the fore of the betting market.
In total, 10 of the 12 champions secured a top-three position in the betting hierarchy — highlighting the correlation between betting prominence and on-track success.
Last time out
How a horse fared in its last run before the Supreme emerges as a critical factor, with 11 out of 12 winners triumphing in their final outing before the Cheltenham Festival.
Additionally, 10 of the 12 showcased their prowess within the last 66 days — emphasizing the need to be in peak condition.
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Build-up races
Build-up races serve as litmus tests for aspiring contenders, with certain fixtures carrying notable significance in predicting success.
The Leopardstown-based Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle boasts a flawless record of producing winners among its participants, while the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown emerged as a harbinger of triumph for two subsequent Supreme champions.
C&D mettle
Given the youthful nature of the Supreme runners, a previous run at Cheltenham Racecourse isn’t mandatory. However, familiarity with the course does prove advantageous for contenders.
Notably, five out of the dozen champions boasted prior runs at Prestbury Park — affirming the value of course knowledge.
Moreover, ability over the Supreme’s distance is a common trait — with all 12 victors highlighting the importance of speed and stamina over roughly two miles.
Hurdle experience
A robust groundwork over the smaller obstacles forms the bedrock of success, with the bulk of champions boasting extensive experience and proficiency over hurdles.
In total, 10 of the 12 horses assessed had at least three outings over the smaller obstacles while all but one had won at least twice.
Ratings
High ratings also emerge as a frequent denominator among champions, as 10 out of 12 victors were rated 148+ — reflecting the calibre required for victory at this esteemed level.
Top-level wins and seasonal success
Achievements in graded races serve as barometers of potential, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least one success in a Grade 1-3 contest.
What’s more, unswerving performance throughout the season is a key factor — with winners typically notching up multiple runs and victories.
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While the odds-on favourite Ballyburn ticks most of the boxes, Willie Mullins has cast doubt over his Supreme participation as the Irish trainer is also weighing up the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle for the six-year-old.
Therefore, we’re going to side with Mystical Power. The JP McManus-owned five-year-old is second in the betting, is unbeaten over hurdles, has displayed proficiency at two miles, and won at Grade 2 level when last seen in January,
