The 2025–26 Premier League title race is heating up ahead of the November international break, with Arsenal and Liverpool both dropping points in Gameweek 11.
What was beginning to look somewhat like a runaway for Arsenal to claim their long-awaited league title is now anything but. The Gunners conceded a stoppage time equaliser to Sunderland on Saturday evening, dropping points in their first match since September.
The 2–2 draw for Mikel Arteta’s men would not have been the end of the world had Manchester City also failed to win this weekend. Except the Cityzens thrashed Liverpool 3–0 at the Etihad, bringing them within four points of league-leaders Arsenal.
The Reds, meanwhile, saw their momentary return to winning ways completely dashed on a rainy night in Manchester. Liverpool now find themselves in eighth place, with their hopes of defending their English crown dwindling with each new defeat.
Now according to si.com, here’s how Opta’s supercomputer predicts the Premier League title race to pan out after Arsenal and Liverpool’s slip ups.
Despite Arsenal’s blunder against Sunderland, they are still Opta’s pick to win the league by a resounding margin. The Gunners are projected to earn around 80 points, which would be four points less than what Liverpool needed to claim the English crown last season.
Should Arteta’s men win the Premier League title with 80 points, they will do so with the fourth-lowest points total in league history.
Man City, meanwhile, are projected to mount a runners-up finish following their victory over Liverpool. The Cityzens are predicted to earn just over 72 points in 2025–26.
Opta, though, gives Pep Guardiola’s side a 19.43% chance to win the Premier League title; Man City are the only other club given a double-digit percentage to potentially become the next English champions, with Arsenal leading the way with 65.49%.
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Liverpool are now bumped down to third in Opta’s projections. The Reds’ loss at the Etihad puts them within range of collecting just 69 points, their lowest haul since the 2022–23 season.
Below the top three, various clubs are competing to finish in the Champions League places. It is likely that the top five teams in the English top-flight will qualify for UEFA’s premier club competition.
Hopes were high for Chelsea to make a push for the Premier League title after their FIFA Club World Cup triumph, but injuries and red cards have marred the Blues’ 2025–26 season. Still, they are projected to finish fourth with a 39% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.
Opta then projects a tight battle Aston Villa and Crystal Palace to claim fifth place. The former is projected to finish with 60 points while the latter is projected to finish with around 59 points.
