NCAA Football Odds – TCU at North Carolina: Belichick makes his long-awaited debut

Bill Belichick surprised many people when he was unable to hook on with an NFL team in the off-season, taking a college football head coaching job with the North Carolina Tar Heels.

With rebuilding necessary after a 6-7 season, Belichick and his general manager, Mike Lombardi, went to work stocking the shelves. They hit the transfer portal hard, and that is where their starting quarterback comes from.

Will the Heels get ambushed by the TCU Horned Frogs and their wide-open offense? The six-time Super Bowl winner, who carries a big reputation as a defensive mind, will see that put to the test (along with his son Steve, who is his coordinator on that side of the ball).

Passing that test, even at home, will be far from easy.

NCAA Football Odds on TCU vs. North Carolina

Here are the latest lines on the game, as they are listed at BetUS. As you can see, Belichick’s North Carolina squad is getting points:

TCU Horned Frogs -3.5
North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5

Over 56 Points -115
Under 56 Points -105

Taking a look at the TCU Horned Frogs

To be sure, TCU had some lapses on defense last season; witness the 66-point explosion SMU unleashed on them. But with eight defenders returning from last season’s starting bunch, there should be some improvement. And with Bud Clark, they have one of the top safeties in the country.

With Sonny Dykes as head coach and Kendal Briles as the O-coordinator, however, they will put up numbers on offense. They operate at a very rapid pace, which will take some getting used to. And Josh Hoover is a very capable trigger man; he threw for 3949 yards with 27 TD’s last year. They don’t run the ball often or even very well (3.7 ypc), but this offense is designed around the receivers, and for the most part, they’ve brought in a whole new bunch of them.

The returnee is Erik McAlister, who can produce some big plays for them (19.5 yds./catch). But they have brought in transfers like Jordan Dwyer (Idaho) and Joseph Manjack (Houston) to add something to the mix.

Taking a look at the North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina would put some pressure on that Horned Frogs stop unit, if it could function like a well-oiled machine. But will it? Gio Lopez, a transfer from South Alabama, will get the starting nod at quarterback. Lopez threw for 2559 yards and 18 touchdowns in the Sun Belt Conference last season, and he adds a genuine element of mobility, as he ran for 465 as well. He’s not likely to stretch out the TCU defense, however, so the Frogs (like Clark) may be able to play a little closer to the line of scrimmage.

Davion Gause has a big responsibility, as he is replacing first-round draft choice Omarion Hampton in the lineup. Gause is no stiff; he averaged 4.9 yards a carry as a freshman, but Hampton’s explosiveness is tough to duplicate.

The offensive line has a veteran presence, but one of those vets, center Austin Blaske, will not be available for a while as he has a foot injury. That’s a big hole in the middle.

Steve Belichick, the coach’s son, takes over as the defensive coordinator after spending last year at the U. of Washington. These guys will be counting on significant contributions from transfers, not only along the defensive line but the linebacking crew as well. Cornerback Thaddeus Dixon followed the young Belichick from Washington.

So who will cover between North Carolina and TCU?

The challenges for Belichick, who’s debuting in college ball, are many. TCU’s offense has an awful lot of continuity, and that will count for something. The fact that this is not just another dink-and-dunk attack is bothersome as well.

Our guess is that this will be a transition period, at least at the outset, for the new Belichick regime. And TCU takes advantage of that in a way they may not have been able to do if it was later in the season.

We’ll lay the points with TCU, even on the road.