Opta’s latest supercomputer has revealed the favourites to win the Champions League ahead of it starting up next week – and it’s not good reading for one Premier League side.
The first games of the 2025-26 competition will take place next Tuesday, with the likes of Arsenal and Tottenham in action on matchday one as 36 teams go for glory again.
Paris Saint-Germain go into the competition as defending champions after thrashing Inter Milan in the 2024-25 final, while six Premier League teams will take part in this edition.
They are Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Newcastle, who finished in the top five of the competition, as well as Tottenham, who qualified as Europa League winners.
The draw has been made for the league phase, which will see each team play eight matches in a bid to finish in the top eight of the standings to qualify for the knockout stages automatically, or at least finish ninth to 24th to reach the play-off round.
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According to Daily Mail, with the return of the competition, analysts Opta have run 10,000 simulations to see who the most likely winners of this season’s competition are – and it’s a Premier League side.
It’s the Premier League champions who are the most likely to win the Champions League, Opta say. Arne Slot’s Liverpool side are given a 20.4 per cent chance of lifting the trophy for a seventh time – despite losing to PSG in the last-16 last year.
Alongside that, they are given a 34 per cent chance of reaching the final, and a mammoth 72.7 per cent chance of reaching the last-eight.
Second most likely, meanwhile, to win the trophy are Arsenal. Despite never winning the Champions League, Mikel Arteta’s side are given a 16 per cent chance of glory this season.
There is pressure on the Spaniard to deliver success after coming second three years in a row in the Premier League, and they also reached the semi-finals of the Champions League last season.
They are backed at 44.8 per cent to reach the same stage again next year – with PSG close behind them in terms of the most-likely to win the competition. They are given a 12.7 per cent chance of retaining their title.
Below the reigning champions is another English side in Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s team have had a tough start to the domestic season, losing two of their three games so far, but it’s not predicted that that run will have an impact on their European form.
City are given an 8.4 per cent chance of winning the trophy they lifted in 2023, as well as 16.6 per cent chance of reaching the final and 31.1 per cent chance of finding themselves in the last-four.
There’s then more good reading for Premier League sides, with Chelsea close behind in sixth – also behind Barcelona – given a seven per cent chance of winning the Champions League – meaning four of the top six favourites are from the Premier League.
